Thursday, April 30, 2009

100 Day Update

It’s crazy to think that 100 days have passed since Obama became president! So much has changed, grown, and evolved since January 20th. On that day, I created a virtual portfolio of american stocks that I felt were profitable sustainability leaders. After watching it tumble throughout Feb and early March, it’s been extremely profitable ever since. My portfolio is up 8.9% total since Jan. 20, and since I’ve kept about 1/3 in cash, my investments have grown even more than that!

I suppose it’s easy to look like a genius in a good market, but I am proud! The S&P 500 and MSCI World (the two major benchmarks) are both sitting almost exactly where they were 100 days ago, which means that I’ve outperformed! Where’s my bonus?? =)

I’ve learned some very important lessons by keeping this virtual portfolio, most importantly about market timing. Although my sustainability knowledge helps me to identify good companies, I am not an expert in deciding when to buy or sell. I’ve mostly been trusting my gut on when to pull the trigger on a trade, and I’ve still got lots to learn in this area.


Big Winners

JCI - Although I bought this stock on the way down, it has come back strongly since mid-March, doubling from its low. I wish I had bought more in March!

ENOC - This stock has gone nowhere but up since I bought it! From $8.51 to $18.06 today!!

FSLR - This company wouldn’t have made me any money if I wasn’t paying close attention. I noticed that it dropped precipitously Feb 25 - Mar 02. from $137.68 to $103.97. Seeing a bargain, I bought a whole bunch and was rewarded as has risen steadily since.

Big Losers

JNJ & CAT - These two companies have been my biggest disappointment. I thought that the first Obama stimulus would focus more on health and infrastructure. It didn’t. A big lesson I learned here is that behemoth sustainability leaders will take waaaay longer to adapt. I still like these companies in the long-term, but my money will earn more if invested elsewhere.

ENER - This stock has been flaccid at best because they delayed expansion plans that had been priced-in. I’ve kept buying more on the way down, and expect a rally soon.