Tuesday, January 27, 2009

One Week In

It's been a week since Barack Obama became president, and since I started my career as a virtual portfolio manager.

I'm very impressed with Obama's performance so far, especially in the realm of governmental transparency. whitehouse.gov is a truly amazing site, as elegant as it is detailed. Fortunately, his actions are speaking even louder than his words with the closing of Guantanamo Bay and his first 2 memoranda, which effectively raised the efficiency of automobiles in a direct attempt to reduce America's dependance on imported energy. Obama is certainly 'walking-the-talk' so far, and I am excited to watch his government slowly implement their broad strategy.

My first week on the Virtual Stock Exchange was a bit bumpy. Having put 2/3rds of my money in the game as Obama was getting inaugorated, my protfolio was down as much as 3.5% last week. My stocks fell in tune with the broad market, as financial stocks got pummelled again. Fortunately, the markets have been better so far this week, and I'm only down 2.68% at this moment. The big lesson I learned was to not buy all at once. By allocating so much of my portfolio at the onset, I limited my option to buy more as prices continued to drop. I think it's a really smart idea to buy and sell in smaller portions over time, never all at once.

One thing that is important to recognize is that for both Obama and myself, there is no precendent for our current context, and we will both make mistakes as we try to figure it out. I'm certainly trying to learn and evolve as I go, and let's hope for the world's sake that Obama's government can do the same.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Virtual Portfolio

Hi Loyal Fans!

I've just created a Virtual Portfolio that will help me build a track-record for my investment ideas! I hope that this will be a learning process, so that I can help you avoid the mistakes that I am bound to make. The post below describes my initial rationale, and why I feel that these stocks are a wise move.

Please comment if you have any thoughts or ideas to help me!

You can see my portfolio by clicking here

Wish me luck!!

Stocks for Obama's First 100 Days and Beyond!

President-elect Obama has chosen a Green Dream Team to inform his transition to a ‘new energy economy’ that will increase domestic sources of energy, with a focus on renewable sources. Moreover, a large stimulus package is expected within the first few weeks of his presidency that will spur business and create jobs. Based on what Obama has said, I’m assuming that we will see a boost in share prices of companies that stand to benefit in the short-term from this stimulus package, and in the long-term as the Green Economy emerges.

This strategy has two complementary goals:

-Generate a reasonable financial return on investment.
-Invest in sustainability leaders.

I’ve divided the companies into GOLD, SILVER, and BRONZE classes. Each company was assessed for it’s cash on hand, debt/equity ratio, and dividend yield. If a company’s dividend is not available, it’s probably because they are young and are reinvesting profits rather than distributing them to investors. I also performed a qualitative assessment of its sustainability strategy. The ideal candidates used a strategy called Backcasting, whereby a clear long-term vision is the guide for today’s practical initiatives. I was looking for sustainability reports (ideally the Global Reporting Initiative guidelines), strategic partnerships, and a demonstrated understanding of sustainability risks and opportunities.

****DISCLAIMER**** I do not own any of these securities, nor am I qualified to issue any recommendations. Systemic risks affecting the entire market are a threat to each of these holdings, regardless of business strengths and opportunities. My goal here is to educate ONLY. You should research the company further on your own terms before making any investment decisions. ****DISCLAIMER****

Here are the picks:

GOLD STOCKS


Caterpillar
Caterpillar machines are synonymous with construction and infrastructure. I figured that this company stands to benefit from an Obama infrastructure stimulus. However, I was surprised to learn that they also had a wonderful long-term sustainability strategy. They produced a comprehensive GRI sustainability report in 2007, which detailed their vision as “to contribute, through diverse businesses, to a society in which people’s basic needs are not only met but fulfilled in a way that sustains the environment”. Caterpillar has operational goals set for the year 2020 including: reducing absolute greenhouse gas emissions by 25%; renewable sources for for 20% of energy needs; increase customer energy efficiency by 20%; zero waste to landfill; and more. Finally, they are using a Life Cycle Assessment to understand the environmental impact of their entire operation. Caterpillar has a large amount of debt on their books, but I am not worried about them going bankrupt.

Johnson & Johnson
With an aging population and a healthcare system in desperate need of resurrection, the Healthcare industry is poised to grow significantly under Obama’s administration. Even during hard economic times, people will continue to invest in their own physical well-being. Johnson & Johnson have produced one of the best sustainability reports I have ever seen, raising the bar of transparency leadership. Areas of improvement are: sustainable supply-chain; product stewardship; climate change mitigation; responsible research; and facilitating access to healthcare for those less fortunate. In 2006, JNJ created 5-year goals in the area of biodiversity, energy use and CO2 emissions, education, waste, water, transparency, and environmental literacy. On pace to meet most of these goals, JNJ is a corporate sustainability leader.

First Solar, Inc.
If Obama is serious about meeting renewable energy goals, solar electricity capacity needs to grow. First Solar is America’s most recognized solar company and should pop the most as investors flock to Greentech stocks. My prediction is that Obama will install solar panel on the White House within the first 100 days of his presidency, signaling a push towards residential and commercial solar power generation. With lots of cash and little debt, First Solar is well positioned financially to meet this new demand. Moreover, they use systems design to reduce cost and environmental impact throughout a product’s entire lifecycle. I expect this stock to pop in the next 100 days, and to continue growing for the next 10 years.

Johnson Controls, Inc.
Johnson Controls is a well-diversified company that is guided by the vision of “a more comfortable, safe and sustainable world“ and values like integrity, customer satisfaction, employee engagement, innovation, and sustainability. Delivering products from hybrid-car batteries to HVAC systems, Johnson Controls also offers complete building efficiency services. Improving the efficiency of millions of buildings is a logical first-step for Obama as he tries to create green-collar jobs. Labor-intensive, it produces a high multiple of economic activity for every government dollar spent. Also, it serves the dual goals of lowering costs and reducing CO2 emissions, which makes it an attractive investment for businesses hoping to take advantage of the current low interest rates. Johnson Controls has used the GRI guidelines for their sustainability report, and they are a leader in employee education and engagement. I feel confident that they are moving in the right direction, and that Johnston Controls will grow in the new economy.


SILVER STOCKS


Western Wind Energy
For investors who want to incorporate wind into their portfolio, Western Wind Energy is a good choice. They recently completed a financing that will increase their cash, and they have almost no debt. With many projects in development, Western Wind Energy should benefit from a government boost of clean energy prices and subsidies. Although they don’t produce a sustainability report, their focus on wind energy means that they will profit from the transition to a sustainable energy grid.

Florida Power & Light Energy
FPL Energy is an investor-owned utility company providing electricity throughout the state of Florida. They have produced a sustainability report (although not using GRI guidelines), and produce almost 80% of their energy using natural gas and wind (49% NG, 30% wind). As renewable energy targets are set, and carbon-intensive energy production is discouraged, FPL Energy will be leading the way for US utilities. Although they have lots of debt, their customer base is increasing and electricity distribution is generally recession-proof.

ENERNOC
One of the big challenges facing an economy powered primarily by renewable energy is the problem of baseload. With intermittent energy sources like wind and solar, the fear is that energy demand could outstrip supply during busy times. ENERNOC provides a solution known as demand response. It allows companies to automatically curtail heavy energy use during peak times, when electricity is most demand (and therefore most expensive). Demand response is a win-win solution because it cuts corporate costs (by purchasing electricity when it is cheapest) and reduces the spikes of peak demand, allowing for a smoother transition to a new energy economy. Moreover, the company can assist large institutions (like Western Connecticut State University) to improve energy efficiency through monitoring and waste identification.

Cooper Industries
Although they provide an array of electrical products, Cooper Industries is starting to focus more on energy efficient lights and environmentally responsible electrical transformers. Their corporate social responsibility report was uninspiring, and did not use the GRI guidelines. Without a strong long-term vision and plan, Cooper Industries might not adapt as quicker as some other companies in this industry. That said, they have lots of cash, not much debt, and the stock is very undervalued. As efficiency and renewable energy go mainstream, expect Cooper to grow.

Waterfurnace Renewable Energies
Waterfurnace Renewable Energies installs heating/cooling geothermal systems to homes and businesses. Able to reduce a building’s energy consumption for heat, cooling, and hot water by 70%, geothermal heat pump systems require an upfront infrastructure investment. Normally, buildings balk at upfront costs like this, but with extremely low interest rates, this type of investment becomes very attractive. As energy efficiency standards become law, geothermal heating should become commonplace. Although they have no long-term sustainability strategy, Waterfurnace Renewable Energies has some good green initiatives. If geothermal technology catches on in the USA the way it has in Sweden and in Switzerland, then this company will generate huge profits.


BRONZE STOCKS


American Superconductor
American Superconductor is a leader in high-efficiency power cables and electronic convertors. These products are crucial to the creation of a renewable energy grid, as their voltage control technologies are needed to connect wind farms to transmission grids. Although they have not communicated any sort of sustainability strategy, American Superconductor will be a critical company to the emergence of a new energy economy.

Spire Corp
Spire is a well-diversified company that sells turn-key solar production lines, medical devices and semiconductors. As the US decides to ramp-up solar panel production and new firms enter the market, expect this company to be extremely successful. A clear vision and sustainability report would make this company much more attractive to me, as there is no indication of a long-term sustainability strategy.

Energy Conversion Devices, Inc.
Energy Conversion Devices is a leader in two important industries: solar and storage. Under the UNI-SOLAR brand, ECD sells solar panels ideal for rooftop installation. They also operate the Ovonics Materials Division, which makes nickel hydroxide batteries used in all hybrid vehicles. They are also leaders in hydrogen technologies, which has the potential to further transform energy storage. Unfortunately, they have not yet communicated a sustainability strategy, and their long-term vision is unclear.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Responsible Investors are Calling for Systemic Reform

January 14, 2009 - New York City

Institutional investors were speaking passionately about the need for deep reform of financial systems this week at the 3rd Annual Forum on Responsible Investing. The event took place January 12-13, 2009 at the Union League Club in New York City, and was strongly attended by all facets of the financial community, including foundation representatives, pension fund managers, research firms, consultants and student activists.

Conversations centered around the global credit crunch, and the recognition that ‘business as usual’ is no longer an option for institutional investors. Foundations, such as Tides Foundation and The Edward W. Hazen Foundation, have seen their holdings decimated in recent months, and are moving away from the common practice of hiring traditional managers to generate high growth at any cost for philanthropy purposes. Instead, they are shifting their assets into investment options that are complementary to their mission and social values in an attempt to ‘do well by doing good’. Socially responsible mutual funds, asset managers and insurance groups, like Calvert, Trillium and Aviva, are also examining their portfolios in a new light, using positive corporate ESG performance as a proxy for good management in an attempt to make wise long-term investments. Several speakers, including Michael Musuraca, Designated Trustee of New York City Employees Retirement System, were so appalled with the greed and short-term thinking prevalent in traditional portfolio management that they lashed out against mainstream managers and economists. Sarah Stranahan, Trustee of The Needmor Fund, said, “the only thing worse than the collapse of the market would have been its continued success“. They prescribed an emboldened US financial regulatory system that would implement incentives for greater cooperation, transparency and ethical decision-making. A call for action was sounded by stakeholders such as the Responsible Endowments Coalition, who are tired of listening to mission-related investors and hearing lots of theoretical talk, without seeing any practical walk.

Although a sense of frustration and urgency permeated the forum, the conference hall was also full of hope that the incoming Obama administration was presenting a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity to profit from the emergent Green Economy. Participants discussed sustainable solutions from non-profits, corporations and governments that encouraged eco-efficiency, while providing a strong economic and social return on investment. Moreover, they exchanged investment strategies that had the dual goals of generating a reasonable financial return, and of creating a better future.


The 3rd Annual Forum on Responsible Investing was organized by Institutional Investor Events, and was sponsored primarily by Calvert Investments and KLD Research & Analytics.

Timothy Jack Nash is a member of the Ethical Markets Sustainability Research Group.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Back to the Basics of Sustainability

People who make New Year’s Resolutions know instinctively that with each new year comes a chance for reflection, for renewal, and for rebirth. Since my hope is for a New Millennium’s Evolution (particularly in the economic and financial systems), it’s important for me to remember WHY I am working on such issues.

I’ve been fortunate in my life to have experienced some pretty powerful connections with living species and systems. But my biggest “AHA!” moment came from an encounter with a smart Swedish scientist named Karl-Henrik Robèrt. He described how economic growth relies on increased demand for energy and inputs. As companies and industries have been growing globally, so too has the need for fossil fuels, metals, water and land. Since traditional business theory is to keep growing in terms of quantity, we can only assume that demand for resources and ecosystem services will continue to rise, increasing the economy’s eco-footprint.


At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented decline of the productive capacity of Nature. There are too many examples of ecosystem decline to name them all, but some of the most stunning losses are of the world’s forests and sharks. Non-renewable resources like metals and fossil fuels are just that: non-renewable. Therefore, Earth’s supply is being diminished everyday as mines and drilling rigs continue to operate.


When you consider these two trends together, you get a situation that looks a lot like a funnel!


As we continue with business as usual, the planet is entering further into the funnel, increasing the likelihood of a major catastrophe that could cripple the global economy, tear apart social fabric, and do permanent damage to life-producing ecosystems. We can debate the timing of such a crash, but it will happen sooner or later if we do not change course. Moreover, it will cost much less to prevent the problems now, rather than trying to fix them later.

Achieving Sustainability is about leveling out these two major trends, so that our social and economic systems can continue to operate indefinitely. It is about minimizing personal eco-footprints and consumption rates to levels within the productive means of the planet. And at the same time, it is about investing in new business models and processes that generate economic growth without depleting Nature’s capacity. It is about creating the conditions for endless economic growth, by pursuing quality of life and not quantity of material belongings.

I don’t imagine that an economic shift of this scope will come quickly or easily, but momentum is growing and a tipping point is near!